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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly, and Federal Reserve officials released a strong hawkish signal again." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 17, in early trading in Asia, spot gold was trading around US$4,102 per ounce. The price of gold was affected by the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December dropped sharply. However, at the beginning of this week, the geopolitical situation The U.S. Army Secretary said that he was ready to use force against Venezuela; U.S. crude oil was trading around $59.53 per barrel. Affected by geopolitical risks, international oil prices closed sharply higher by more than 2% on Friday. Russia said that Russia and the United States are still in contact regarding the heads of state meeting.
The US dollar showed divergent trends last Friday, rising against the euro but almost flat against the yen. The U.S. dollar index's slight gain was mainly due to the stock market's rebound from a sharp sell-off in early trading, which eased the market's risk aversion sentiment. Meanwhile, traders are reassessing the prospect of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Recently, many Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation and are cautious about further easing policy, which has led to a sharp cooling of market expectations for an interest rate cut in December. The current federal funds futures market shows that the probability of an interest rate cut is only 41%.
With the end of the U.S. federal government shutdown, a wave of delayed economic data will be released starting this week. The return of these data is expected to end the "data vacuum" of recent weeks and is likely to trigger a rebound in market volatility. Investors are watching the data closely for a clearer signal on the state of the economy and the path of Federal Reserve policy.
Among the major currency pairs, the pound has been particularly weak. It fell sharply against both the dollar and the euro on media reports that the UK government had abandoned plans to increase income tax rates, a policy U-turn that raised concerns about uncertainty over UK fiscal policy in the weeks ahead of the budget.
In addition, the Swiss franc earlierAlthough demand for safe havens strengthened for a time, USD/CHF ultimately closed higher. A piece of trade news also attracted attention: the United States agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% under the new framework agreement.
Preliminary data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office on Monday showed that the Japanese economy shrank by 0.4% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025. The reading was above market expectations for a 0.6% decline and the previous forecast for a 0.6% increase (revised from 0.5%).
Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 1.8%, while the previous value increased by 2.3% (revised from 2.2%), which was stronger than the expected -2.5%.
The euro zone achieved a solid trade surplus of 19.4B euros in September, benefiting from the general growth in merchandise exports. Outbound volume increased by 7.7% year-on-year to 256.6B euros, exceeding the 5.3% year-on-year increase in imports.
The more wzhdjgj.comprehensive EU trade balance also returned sharply to a surplus, falling from a -4.5B euro deficit in August to a 16.3B euro surplus in September. The turnaround was mainly driven by a strong rebound in the chemicals sector, whose surplus jumped from €15.4B to €26.9B.
On a partner basis, EU shipments to the United States were the main driver, growing 15.4% year-on-year to €53.1B. Imports from the United States grew solidly at 12.5%, leaving a wider surplus of 22.2B euros. Trade with Switzerland was also strong: exports increased by 13.4% and imports by 10.6%, bringing the bilateral surplus to €6.7B. In contrast, exports to China fell by -2.5% year-on-year, while imports increased by 3.6%, pushing the deficit with China to -€33.1B. Trade flows with the UK were mixed, with exports up 2.8% year-on-year, while imports fell -0.3%, and the surplus widened to €16.1B.
Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December. It is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts. Director Milan: Data supports interest rate cuts, and the Fed should be more dovish. Schmid: Further interest rate cuts could have a lasting impact on inflation; my concerns about inflation go far beyond tariffs. Market news: Coogler, the former governor of the Federal Reserve, faced an ethics investigation before resigning.
The US-Switzerland trade agreement has basically been reached, and the tariff rate for Switzerland will be 15%.
The release time of some backlogged data in the United States has been determined, and the September non-farm payrolls report will be released on Thursday.
U.S. Office of Government Ethics: Trump purchased at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds from the end of August to early October.
Trump said that the United States will conduct a nuclear test, and it is reported that US Department of Energy officials plan to discourage this.
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