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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Geopolitical tension supports oil prices, the United States is ready to use force against Venezuela, and gold prices return to above 4100." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (November 17, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,102 per ounce. The price of gold was affected by the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. fell, but the geopolitical situation at the beginning of this week may boost gold prices. The U.S. Secretary of the Army said that it is ready to use force against Venezuela; U.S. crude oil is trading around $59.53 per barrel. Affected by geopolitical risks, international oil prices closed sharply higher by more than 2% on Friday. Russia said that Russia and the United States are still in contact regarding the heads of state meeting.
The trend of U.S. stocks was divergent last Friday, showing a mixed pattern of gains and losses. The Nasdaq index closed slightly higher by 0.13%, at 22900.59 points, supported by technology stocks. The S&P 500 index fell slightly by 0.05%, closing at 6734.11 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, dragged down by wzhdjgj.components such as UnitedHealth Group and Visa, performed relatively weakly, falling 0.65% to close at 47147.48 points. There was panic in the market during the session, and the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 1%.
Market sentiment is mainly affected by two major factors: one is the weakening of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the other is concerns about the high valuation of artificial intelligence concept stocks. As inflation continues to be high, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting have cooled significantly, with the probability falling to less than 50% from 67% a week ago. This concern was reinforced by wzhdjgj.comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid, who once again emphasized concerns about "overheating" inflation.
In this context, the quarterly results announced by artificial intelligence chip giant NVIDIA on Wednesday will become the focus of market attention. Investors hope to find out from its earnings report whether the AI boom continuesStrong evidence, which is seen as key to determining the short-term direction of the market. Some analysts believe that even if NVIDIA's performance falls short of expectations and causes market fluctuations, bargain hunters may soon enter the market to stabilize the situation.
In addition, investors are also worried that the previous U.S. government shutdown may result in the permanent loss of some key economic data, which adds uncertainty to the assessment of the labor market and inflation outlook.
Affected by the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, gold prices suffered a sharp sell-off last Friday. Spot gold fell 1.9% on the day, closing at $4,092.72 per ounce, and fell more than 3% during the session; U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed down 2.4%, at $4,094.20.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December have weakened significantly. Many Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed caution about further easing monetary policy, causing the market's probability of a December interest rate cut according to the CMEFedWatch tool to have dropped to about 46% from 50% earlier this week. In a higher interest rate environment, gold, which does not earn interest, will become less attractive.
Despite Friday's weak performance, gold prices rose 2.3% last week due to earlier gains. Other precious metals also fell simultaneously. Silver, platinum and palladium all fell more than 2% last Friday, but they all also recorded gains last week.
In addition, the market also faces the dilemma of missing economic data. Although the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, the shutdown has left a void in key economic data, making it seem like the Federal Reserve and market traders are flying blind when assessing economic conditions and making decisions. Investors had hoped that data on a slowing economy would provide a reason to cut interest rates, boosting gold. At the same time, physical gold demand in major Asian markets was also relatively sluggish last week.
Affected by geopolitical risks, international oil prices closed sharply higher by more than 2% last Friday. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.19% to US$64.39 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.39% to US$60.09 per barrel. For the whole week, Brent crude oil rose 1.2% and U.S. crude oil rose about 0.6%.
The main driver of this rise in oil prices was Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The attack forced the Russian port of Novorossiysk to suspend oil exports. The port exports up to 2.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 2% of global supply. The attack was assessed by market analysts as being large-scale and far-reaching, significantly exacerbating market concerns about supply disruptions.
In addition, investors are also paying close attention to the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil supplies and trade flows. The United States, seeking to pressure the Kremlin, has imposed sanctions banning transactions with Russia's Lukoil and Rosneft.
On the other hand, data shows that the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased, which indicates that U.S. crude oil production may rise in the future. This factor may limit the increase in oil prices to a certain extent.
The U.S. dollar showed divergent trends last Friday, rising against the euro but almost flat against the yen. The U.S. dollar index's slight gain was mainly due to the stock market's rebound from a sharp sell-off in early trading, which eased the market's risk aversion sentiment. Meanwhile, traders are reassessing the prospect of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Recently, many Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation and are cautious about further easing policy, which has led to a sharp cooling of market expectations for an interest rate cut in December. The current federal funds futures market shows that the probability of an interest rate cut is only 41%.
With the end of the U.S. federal government shutdown, a wave of delayed economic data will be released starting this week. The return of these data is expected to end the "data vacuum" of recent weeks and is likely to trigger a rebound in market volatility. Investors are watching the data closely for a clearer signal on the state of the economy and the path of Federal Reserve policy.
Among the major currency pairs, the pound has been particularly weak. It fell sharply against both the dollar and the euro on media reports that the UK government had abandoned plans to increase income tax rates, a policy U-turn that raised concerns about uncertainty over UK fiscal policy in the weeks ahead of the budget.
In addition, the Swiss franc strengthened earlier due to safe-haven demand, but USD/CHF ultimately closed higher. A piece of trade news also attracted attention: the United States agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% under the new framework agreement.
According to CCTV News, on November 16, local time, U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll stated that the U.S. Army is ready to take military action against Venezuela as soon as it receives an order. Driscoll pointed out that the US military is actively conducting multiple trainings in the region, including restarting the jungle school in Panama, to maintain wzhdjgj.combat readiness. However, he declined to say whether he had received relevant action orders.
According to a report by Nikkei on Sunday, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said after meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae that the country’s economic stimulus plan will exceed 17 trillion yen (approximately 110 billion U.S. dollars). Since taking office in October, Takaichi Sanae has pledged to develop a large-scale spending plan to cushion the economic impact of rising living costs and strengthen investment in growth areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The stimulus package is expected to be finalized after approval by the Cabinet meeting on November 21.
In a news program broadcast by Russian media on November 16, Russian presidential assistant Ushakov said that although the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Trump has been postponed, the two sides are still in contact on this matter.
According to CCTV International News, the localOn November 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz issued a statement through social media, saying that Israel’s policy is very clear and unequivocal, that is, “the Palestinian state will not be established.” Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces will man the summit of Mount Hermon and the safety zone it has established. The Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and the Israeli army will continue its operations until the last tunnel is wzhdjgj.completely dismantled; on the Israeli-controlled area on one side of the "yellow line" demarcated by the Israeli army, Hamas will be disarmed by the Israeli army, while on the other side, it will be disarmed by international forces or also by the Israel Defense Forces.
On the 16th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at an event that the United States is transforming pacifism into a hegemony based on force. He said that the White House had used the slogan "peace through strength," but it was soon discovered that this theory was nothing more than a cover to cover up the United States' new operational framework based on force, which led to overt hegemony and blatant use of force. Today, U.S. officials unabashedly declare that they have no intention of acting on the basis of valid political principles or the framework of international law, but simply to “win.” This approach is obviously a return to the law of the jungle.
On the evening of the 16th local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) released a political memorandum signed "Palestine factions and armed forces" through its social media account, strongly warning the United States about the proposal submitted to the United Nations Security Council on the establishment of an international security force in the Gaza Strip, believing that the proposal constitutes a dangerous attempt to implement international trusteeship for Gaza and may promote a governance plan that favors Israel.
Cui Dongshu issued a document saying that driven by the national promotional fee policy, the automobile market maintained strong growth. The overall trend of the national automobile market was strong in October, and the truck market and bus market have recovered significantly. Due to the slow speed of retail transmission in driving wholesale, retail sales in October 2024 will be significantly stronger than wholesale sales, resulting in negative growth in passenger car retail sales in October this year. However, due to the increase in exports and inventory, the sales growth rate of manufacturers in October is still very good. The trend of new energy vehicles was strong in October, the automobile export market continued to strengthen, manufacturers' inventories changed significantly, and the industry pressure increased. In October, the wzhdjgj.commercial vehicle market showed structural growth characteristics driven by new energy, with the electrification of logistics and transportation accelerating, and the electrification of pickup trucks accelerating.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Geopolitical tension supports oil prices, the United States is ready to use force against Venezuela, and gold prices return to above 4100". It is carefully wzhdjgj.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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