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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: The surge in bankruptcies of US wzhdjgj.companies and the expansion of debt during the shutdown period, be wary of long-term credit erosion of US debt." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Last Friday, as expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve subsided, the U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly, finally closing up 0.087% at 99.27; U.S. bond yields generally closed higher, and as of now, the U.S. dollar is quoted at 99.43.
Federal Reserve - ① Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts. ② Director Milan: Data supports interest rate cuts, and the Fed should be more dovish. ③Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; my concerns about inflation go far beyond tariffs. ④Market news: Coogler, the former governor of the Federal Reserve, faced an ethics investigation before resigning.
Global trade situation--①The US government will remove some agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list. ② The US-Switzerland trade agreement has basically been reached, and the tariff rate for Switzerland will be 15%. ③ South Korea and the United States signed a US$350 billion investment agreement from South Korea to the United States. ④Thailand Government: Thailand-US tariff negotiations will continue to advance. ⑤Canadian Prime Minister Carney: U.S. tariffs will cost Canada 50 billion Canadian dollars.
The release time of some backlogged data in the United States has been determined, and the September non-farm payrolls report will be released on Thursday.
Trump said that the United States will conduct a nuclear test, and it is reported that US Department of Energy officials plan to discourage this.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will freeze rather than lower the UK income tax threshold.
Japanese FinanceMinister Katayama Takao: Japan’s stimulus plan will exceed US$110 billion.
Market news: The EU is considering increasing its defense and border security budget, which may reach 190 billion euros in 2026.
Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran is not conducting uranium enrichment activities, nor does it have any undeclared uranium enrichment facilities.
An explosion occurred at a police station in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and the death toll rose to 9
The Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the "M23 Movement" signed a wzhdjgj.comprehensive peace framework agreement.
The South Korean government unified the order of expression of the three Northeast Asian countries into "Korea, China, and Japan."
Goldman Sachs: Japan’s third-quarter GDP this week, Kazuo Ueda’s two major prerequisites for interest rate hikes are...
We have lowered Japan’s actual GDP tracking forecast for the third quarter of 2025 (July-September) from the previous estimate of 0.0% to an annualized quarterly rate of -0.5%. (Actual data will be released next Monday.) The downward revision is mainly driven by a sharp contraction in housing investment due to one-time factors, and a decline in exports that we judge to be affected by tariffs. If these temporary factors are excluded, we believe that the overall economy will still maintain moderate positive growth, supported by Japan's private consumption and corporate capital expenditure.
The New High City Sanae Government plans to adopt a supplementary budget before the end of the year and wzhdjgj.complete the approval of the main budget for fiscal year 2026 by March 2026. The supplemental budget is expected to include measures to wzhdjgj.combat inflation, fiscal transfers to local governments, tariff response measures, and front-loading of approved defense spending for fiscal 2025. Although the budget reported by the media has exceeded 10 trillion yen (approximately US$6.8 billion), we note that it may include indirect fiscal expenditures (such as government investment and loans). While discussing the supplementary budget, we expect the government to initiate discussions on implementing permanent tax cuts to wzhdjgj.combat inflation. We will pay special attention to the introduction of income tax relief to alleviate the phenomenon of "tax bracket climbing" where the actual tax burden increases due to rising nominal income. After the October monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current policy unchanged, but Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank's confidence in achieving its baseline scenario is increasing, suggesting that the next time to raise interest rates may be approaching. Ueda emphasized that the prerequisites for raising interest rates include: the "spring wage negotiations" next spring confirm that wage growth momentum is sustained, and there is evidence that the U.S. tariffs have not caused additional drag on the Japanese economy.
We maintain our baseline forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next January.
Goldman Sachs: Britain has given up on tax increase plans and the fiscal gap is expected to widen to...
According to the British "Financial Times" report, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer has given up on plans to increase income tax rates in the budget. The move triggered a fall in sterling, as the market is assessing two key impacts: first, the underlying motivations for the political game within the Labor Party, and second, the potential risk that maintaining campaign promises could lead to a continuation of financial difficulties.
Previously we expected that the British BudgetIt will include a wzhdjgj.combination of income tax rises and National Insurance cuts. However, if the tax increase plan is cancelled, there will be a funding gap that needs to be filled through other channels. It is worth noting that the report also mentioned that the government may take new measures to "lower the threshold for personal income tax" (rather than just freeze it). We estimate that current UK fiscal needs have risen from £30 billion to £35 billion.
Citibank:: Fiscal consolidation still requires... billion pounds. What are the alternatives?
The news that the British Chancellor of the Exchequer gave up raising income tax rates triggered violent market fluctuations. British government bonds fell 13 basis points at the opening, the FTSE 100 index fell 1%, and the pound fell 0.6%. The market views this as a major binary event risk, although most GBP assets have recovered some of their losses as trading unfolded.
The latest data shows that due to strong government revenue and better-than-expected wage performance, the estimated fiscal gap has narrowed from 30 billion pounds to 20 billion pounds. Although the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer is no longer considering raising basic and higher income tax rates, we estimate that fiscal consolidation will still require approximately £35-40 billion. Alternatives may include: expanding the scope of VAT collection (such as lowering the threshold), freezing the threshold for personal tax, increasing dividend tax and "sin tax" (*/sugar tax), as well as adjusting the tax treatment of partnerships and levying a departure tax for the wealthy.
The government bond market’s concerns about the credibility of Britain’s finances are obvious. If the budget again falls into the "piecemeal" mode, it will be detrimental to the global bond market and may weaken the expected deflationary effect, thereby affecting the policy path of the Bank of England. At present, we need to pay attention to whether the 10-year British bond yield will fall below the key level of 4.58%-4.60%.
Bank of America strategist: Market liquidity has peaked, and a clear signal of a shift to risk-off strategies can be watched...
We believe that market liquidity has peaked, and problems with bank stocks or credit spreads will become the next warning signal. However, given the extremely loose financial conditions, the market's confidence in the economy in 2026, and the lack of experience in bear markets between Fed policy and a new generation of stock investors, risk aversion is unlikely to emerge before May next year. In the short term, while most asset allocators are likely to remain bullish on stocks and less bearish on bonds, the so-called "Christmas blip" may be wzhdjgj.coming to an end. The recent stagnation in risk assets has been driven by expectations of a bubble, even if the bubble itself has not yet materialized. In addition to the artificial intelligence craze, the Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates at a high stock index, but also considered starting quantitative easing in the first half of 2026, and Trump's tax cut policy may be superimposed on a $2,000 stimulus check. In this context, three options have been formed: "Fed put option" (easing policy to support the market), "Trump put option" (fiscal stimulus support market) and "Generation Z put option" (continuing dip buying to support the market).
The ultra-loose environment has caused investors to hit the "trough of interest rate spreads" and it is recommended to short corporate bonds (especially technology bonds, which have seen a surge in recent issuances). It is expected that interest rate spreads will expand before 2026. Markets turn to risk-off strategiesA clear signal would be trouble in bank stocks or wider credit spreads. In the past 12 months, 167 central bank interest rate cuts around the world have built momentum for rising risk assets, but we predict that the number of interest rate cuts will plummet to 81 times in the next year. This slowing liquidity trend explains why Bitcoin has retraced more than 20% from its recent highs.
We propose a contrarian trade here: betting on U.S. CPI falling to 2%. Although the market expects prices to rise due to tariffs and sticky inflation, Trump understands that the outcome of the midterm election depends on the issue of people's livelihood burden - if the CPI maintains 4%, his approval rate will be below 40% and he will lose the election; if the CPI drops to 2%, his approval rate will exceed 45% to seal victory. Under this scenario, long U.S. Treasuries (with 10-year yields falling to 3.5% and 30-year yields to 4%) will outperform.
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