The weakness of "small non-agricultural enterprises", Trump's complaints, and the Bank of Japan's hawkishness jointly detonated the gold price!

On November 19, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.57. On Tuesday, dragged down by weak U.S. employment data, the U.S. dollar index fell intraday, but remained strong amid the sell-off in technology stocks, eventually closing up 0.072% at 99.61; U.S. bond yields fell back, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closing at 4.113%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.585%. Spot gold fell first and then rose. It once fell below the $4,000 mark during the session, and then rebounded quickly. It rebounded further after the release of ADP weekly data, and finally closed up 0.54% at $4,067.51 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 0.96% at $50.69 per ounce. International crude oil oscillated higher as traders weighed the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil supplies. WTI crude oil stood above the US$60 mark and finally closed up 1.39% at US$60.57/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.18% at US$64.46/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.57. Although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that he may raise interest rates as early as next month, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae expressed dissatisfaction and asked the central bank to cooperate with the government to revive the economy. This policy disagreement triggered market concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline. Barclays Bank analysis believes that Prime Minister Takaichi's implementation of Abenomics-style policies will continue to put pressure on the yen. Market focus turns to the U.S. September employment report expected to be released on Thursday, which will provide important clues to the Fed's next move.Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index holds above its 50-day moving average of 99.48, it will move towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 100.00 to 100.15 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1584. The euro has been pressured by a stronger dollar, with euro zone inflation expected to remain near the European Central Bank's 2% target. The euro has also been pressured by the strength of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose 0.04% to 99.57. In Europe, Tuesday's economic calendar is empty. On Wednesday, economists expected euro zone inflation to remain unchanged, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and core HICP remaining around the European Central Bank's 2% target. Technically, if EURUSD breaks below the 1.1585 level, it will head towards the 1.1470 to 1.1485 support levels.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3142. Key UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation data is due out on Wednesday, with analysts expecting another slight decline. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, delayed by the government shutdown, is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Technically, a break below the 1.3145 level would open the way for a test of the 1.3015 to 1.3030 support.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 4072.68.92. Gold rose amid risk-off sentiment as traders braced for the release of long-awaited U.S. economic data. The minutes of the FOMC meeting will take center stage later on Wednesday, leading to the release of the U.S. September non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Nonprofit Program Report for September and October 2025 was not released as planned. Delays in employment data wzhdjgj.complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision ahead of its December meeting. This in turn could boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical: The 4-hour chart shows gold trading at $4,067.90, rising during the session. The 20-period simple moving average (SMA) has retreated, providing dynamic resistance at around $4,090. Meanwhile, the 200-period moving average continues to rise slightly, currently at $4,074.85, while holding at 4,041.52 for the 100-periodAbove the US dollar, the latter provides relevant dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator remains below its midline but is rising slightly, indicating waning bearish pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 46. On the daily chart, gold posted lower highs and lower lows, suggesting increased selling interest but no confirmation of imminent losses. The 20-day moving average has moved lower, while the 100- and 200-day moving averages have continued to rise, supporting the overall trend. Prices remain above all of these averages, indicating that buyers remain in the ascendancy. Technical indicators remain within positive levels, momentum has risen above the midline, and the RSI remains neutral around 52. There is still room to continue if the bulls continue to expand their advantage. The pair would need to recover above the $4,100 level to become more attractive to the bulls, but this is unlikely to happen at the moment.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 60.46. The latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy wzhdjgj.comrmation Administration (EIA) warn that the global oil market is in a phase of oversupply, with weak non-OPEC output growth and consumption expected to affect the economic balance in early 2026. At the same time, geopolitical pressures eased slightly as Russia's Novorossiysk export business resumed, removing some of the risk premium.

Technical: WTI is still trading within a clear descending channel on the daily chart. As long as the upper boundary of the channel remains intact, the overall trend will remain downward sloping. The price has now broken above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) around $59.97, with short-term momentum improving slightly. From a upside perspective, the $61.00–$61.50 range presents the first major obstacle. This area aligns with the upper trendline of the descending channel and was once horizontal support and now acts as resistance, limiting gains on multiple occasions since late October. A daily close above this area would be the first sign of a structural shift, opening the door to the 100-day moving average near $62.80. On the downside, there is immediate support near Monday's low of $59.22, followed by last week's low of $58.12. A decisive break below this area would strengthen the bearish bias, exposing the October 22 lows around $57.31, with additional downside risks extending to the broader October wave lows around $56.00. Momentum is neutral, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 50, indicating a lack of strong directionality, suggesting that WTI may continue to consolidate unless there are new catalysts for a breakout.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on November 19, 2025

①15:00 UK October CPI monthly rate

②15:00 UK Monthly rate of retail price index in October

③17:00 Euro zone current account after seasonal adjustment in September

④18:00 Euro zone final annual CPI rate in October

⑤18:00 Eurozone October CPI monthly final value

⑥21:30 Annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in October

⑦21:30 Total number of building permits in the United States in October

⑧21:30 U.S. trade account in August

⑨23: 00 Fed Governor Milan gave a speech

⑩23:30 EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week of November 14

?23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventory from the United States for the week of November 14

?23:30 EI from the United States for the week of November 14 A strategic petroleum reserve inventory

?The next day at 01:45 the Federal Reserve Barkin gave a speech on the economic outlook

?The next day at 03:00 the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting

?The next day at 03:00 the Federal Reserve Williams gave a speech

?The next day 05:00 NVIDIA will announce its financial report after the market opens

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