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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The US dollar awaits September non-farm employment data". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM Foreign Exchange APP News - During the European session on Tuesday (November 18), the U.S. dollar index rebounded to around 99.55 after falling slightly. Market trading was relatively light as traders awaited Thursday's September non-farm payrolls report, a key indicator guiding the Fed's next round of policy decisions. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 10; this probability has dropped from 62% a week ago to 43% now. A month ago, the market generally believed that an interest rate cut was almost inevitable. Analysts at ING said that the data and related events on Wednesday and Thursday this week will indeed determine the future trend of the US dollar to a large extent. Later on Wednesday, Nvidia will report its quarterly earnings, while Thursday will release the NFP employment report for September, which will include unemployment data. The current market consensus is that the number of jobs will increase by 50,000 and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3%. Such an outcome should be neutral or slightly positive for the dollar - because if the Fed decides to cut interest rates in December, then US economic data will have to show clear signs of weakness. The U.S. dollar index is likely to maintain its recent upward momentum and may even rise to the range of 99.50 to 99.65; however, after reaching this range, its upward momentum may be restrained. Fed officials highlight labor market risks Recent wzhdjgj.comments from Fed officials show rising concerns about employment trends. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that job growth hasA slowdown could drag down overall economic activity and said an interest rate cut in December may be necessary if labor market conditions continue to cool. Traders are also focused on scheduled speeches by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Any clear policy stance may affect the dollar's short-term trend. The government shutdown caused data delays, and the focus turned to the non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect that the number of U.S. jobs will increase by about 50,000 in September after adding 22,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3%. If the non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, it may boost the US dollar - investors will re-evaluate the resilience of the labor market; if the data is worse than expected, it may suppress the US dollar index and restart market expectations for the Federal Reserve's early easing policy. Safe-haven demand provides support for the U.S. dollar index Despite uncertainty, safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar remained stable, providing support for the U.S. dollar index, as investors tended to hold defensive positions ahead of new economic data and further policy guidance from the Federal Reserve.
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