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Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention

Post time: 2025-11-18 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates, gold is under pressure, and geopolitical hot spots frequently attract market attention." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 18, in early Asian trading on Tuesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.57. On Monday, thanks to the reduction in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound, eventually closing up 0.272% at 99.53; U.S. bond yields remained stable, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closing at 4.143%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.619%. Spot gold plunged lower for the third consecutive trading day, once falling nearly $100 from its daily high, and finally closed down 0.83% at $4,045.67 per ounce; spot silver finally closed down 0.69% at $50.21 per ounce. International crude oil opened lower as oil exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed after a two-day suspension. WTI crude oil once again failed to challenge the US$60 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.13% at US$59.74/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.38% at US$63.71/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.57. The dollar was supported by risk aversion as the U.S. government restarted and released a large amount of data, leading to the release of the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release these data, along with actual earnings data on Friday. Meanwhile, investors bought the U.S. dollar on concerns about a possible artificial intelligence bubble, with Nvidia due to report earnings on Wednesday, which could affect sentiment, especially ahead of key U.S. data. Technically, if the US dollar index can stabilize above the 50-day moving average of 99.55, it will move towards the resistance level of 100.00 to 100.15.

Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1589. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that inflation in the euro area is expected to approach the European Central Bank's price stability target. However, he warned that rising tariffs and rising sovereign debt levels pose risks that could affect a sharp shift in market sentiment. Technically, if this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next support level of 1.1470–1.1485.

Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3147. The pound held firm as traders prepared for Thursday's first U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which follows the government's reopening and typically accompanies jobless claims. The UK economy is starting to show signs of weakness after last week's GDP data. Now is the time for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to open the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its December meeting. ?Technically, if GBP/USD breaks above 1.3200, it will head towards the resistance between 1.3250 and 1.3265.

Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In Asian trading on Tuesday, gold hovered around 4033.92. Gold prices were slightly lower as traders lowered expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut next month. Traders will pay close attention to the U.S. September non-farm payrolls (NFP) report later on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened for a third day in a row, leaving holders of other currencies overpriced for precious metal bars. Traders are still seeking insight into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy after the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed the release of official economic statistics.

Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention(图4)

Technical: Gold's overall upward trend remains, with the metal rebounding near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,050. A close above this level could push gold closer to $4,100 and then test the $4,200 mark. However, if it fails to hold above $4,050, gold will face the risk of falling to $4,000, and then is expected to challenge the low of about $3,886 on October 28.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Tuesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 59.62. Oil prices recovered slightly on MondayNews of Russia's Novorossiysk port resuming loading after an attack eased worries about supply disruptions, but Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian energy facilities still kept the market on alert. Investors are paying close attention to the progress of Western sanctions against Russia. The United States will ban transactions with Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21.

Gold is under pressure as the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts interest rates, and frequent geopolitical hot spots attract market attention(图5)

Technical aspect: WTI crude oil futures prices fell intraday on the previous trading day. The price had previously touched the EMA50 moving average resistance level, and subsequently encountered obvious selling pressure. Selling pressure intensified further as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gave a negative signal in overbought territory, indicating that bull momentum is waning.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 18, 2025

①To be determined, the meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed and U.S. President Trump

②21:30 Monthly rate of U.S. import price index in October

③22:15 U.S. industrial output monthly rate in October

④23:00 U.S. NAHB housing market index in November

⑤23:00 U.S. factory orders monthly rate in August

⑥23: 30 Fed Governor Barr delivered a speech on banking supervision

⑦Federal Reserve Barkin delivered a speech on the economic outlook at 00:00 the next day

⑧API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 14 at 05:30 the next day

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