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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 18, 2025, the foreign exchange market was deeply affected by the intertwined influence of Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts and economic dynamics of many countries, and major currency pairs showed divergent trends. The following collection of good and bad news can provide key reference for trading:
Good news: First, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues, and many officials emphasize the need to be cautious before easing. Powell hinted that the December interest rate cut is not an established route, and the market's expectation of the probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped from 74% to 48%. Affected by this, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped 10 basis points due to the sell-off, providing strong support for the U.S. dollar. Secondly, the delayed release of U.S. non-agricultural data will be intensively released this week, and the September non-farm employment report and other data will be released soon. Market sensitivity has soared under the special background, and the U.S. dollar has received double support due to its safe-haven properties. During the European session on the 17th, the U.S. dollar index was at 99.4114, and currency pairs such as the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar maintained a bullish structure. Third, Trump purchased US$82 million in bonds, and market funds’ preference for US dollar assets increased. The US dollar long ETF once attracted US$320 million in a single day, the largest inflow in two weeks.
Bad news: In order to stabilize prices, the Trump administration announced a reduction in tariffs on beef and other agricultural products. Bank of America speculates that this move may herald the end of the trade war. If the subsequent trade environment continues to be loose, the safe-haven funds that previously flowed into the US dollar due to trade uncertainty may return, weakening the US dollar's safe-haven support to a certain extent.
Good news: The trend of a few niche currency pairs provides weak benefits to the euroWell, for example, the exchange rate of Laos kip against the euro rose by 0.3067%, which to a certain extent reflects the fragmented allocation demand for the euro by some market funds, but has limited impact on mainstream currency pairs such as the euro against the US dollar.
Bad news: The support level of 1.16 for EURUSD is in danger. On the one hand, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have suddenly changed, and the strength of the US dollar has put pressure on it; on the other hand, the global geopolitical situation has heated up, and energy supply disturbances have posed a threat to the economic recovery of the Eurozone. The dual pressures have made the long-short confrontation in the Euro fierce. At the same time, uncertainty about the prospect of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank has increased, and the policy gap with the Federal Reserve has further squeezed the euro's upside space.
Good news: The pound is rising against many niche currencies, such as the Lesotho Loti, which rose by 0.7928%, and the Argentine peso, which rose by as high as 1.9846%. The rise in niche markets has brought partial benefits to the pound.
Bad news: The UK’s fiscal outlook is unclear. Finance Minister Reeves faces multiple dilemmas in formulating the autumn budget, and the market has doubts about the reliability of his policies. At the same time, weak economic data in the UK triggered market bets on an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, directly suppressing the performance of the pound. Although GBP/USD rebounded to 1.3170 in the short term, it is generally weak and still faces downside risks in the short term.
Good news: Among the niche currency pairs, the Cambodian riel rose 1.108% against the yen, and the Guinean franc rose 1.1976% against the yen, bringing a small amount of buying support to the yen.
Bad news: The yen strengthened to 154.60 against the US dollar, and policy differences between the Japanese government and the central bank triggered market concerns. Investors' concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes continue to simmer, coupled with external pressure from a stronger US dollar. On the 17th, the Japanese yen fell 0.8829% against the Kazakhstani tenge and fell 0.8981% against the Guinean franc. The overall Japanese yen was under obvious pressure.
Good news: The exchange rate of the Korean won against the Malaysian ringgit rose, and the Seychellois rupee rose by 0.4149% against the Canadian dollar, leading to a partial rise in wzhdjgj.commodity currency-related crosses.
Bad news: The Australian dollar fell into range fluctuations against the US dollar. Investors remained on the sidelines before the release of the RBA meeting minutes. Last week’s Australian employment data has been digested by the market, and there is a lack of new positive news to push the Australian dollar to break through. The Canadian dollar was dragged down by the fall in oil prices, coupled with market concerns about the weakening Canadian economy and CPI data. The US dollar tested key technical resistance against the Canadian dollar, further suppressing the trend of the Canadian dollar.
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