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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: European bond yields retreat, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 17". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.12%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.33%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.58%. Germany's DAX index fell by 0.49%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.00%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.28%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.57%.
⑴ The euro zone's benchmark German 10-year government bond yields fell 1.5 basis points to 2.70%, partially giving up last Friday's gains, as the market awaits delayed U.S. data to indicate the direction. ⑵ The money market’s pricing of the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped from 60% a week ago to 44%, with hawkish wzhdjgj.comments continuing to suppress easing expectations. ⑶ The European Central Bank's policy remains unchanged. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points before July is only 30%, and the deposit interest rate is expected to remain at 1.95% until December. ⑷The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds fell 2 basis points to 3.45%, and the spread with German Bunds was at 73.50 basis points, widening from the 15-year low of 70.68 hit last week. ⑸The 10-year interest rate spread between France and Germany was at 74 basis points, significantly narrower than 87.96 in early October, indicating that the market's concerns about France's finances have eased. ⑹ Analysts pointed out that key inflation data will not be released until December. It will still take time to assess the current economic trajectory, and market volatility may intensify.
⑴British ten-year government bond yieldsIt fell back to 4.55%, having hit a one-month high of 4.58% on Friday after a market sell-off triggered by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves abandoning plans to raise income taxes. ⑵ Although the Office for Budget Responsibility lowered its budget deficit forecast from 35 billion pounds to 20 billion pounds, supported by revenue growth and wage increases, the policy change still raised concerns about the UK's fiscal sustainability. ⑶ Reeves is expected to still raise funds by adjusting the tax threshold and reforming the salary sacrifice program, choosing a smaller budget package rather than a large tax increase. ⑷Political uncertainty continues to exist against the backdrop of cabinet divisions and Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent political turmoil. ⑸The current market pricing shows that the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in December is about 75%. ⑹Investors this week will focus on inflation data, preliminary purchasing managers index values, and possible signs of slowdown in growth in the manufacturing and service industries.
⑴ The German ten-year government bond yield remained near 2.7%, the highest level since early October. ⑵Investors are digesting the European wzhdjgj.commission's latest economic forecasts and preparing for delayed U.S. data, including the September employment report, to obtain further signals on the Federal Reserve's policy path. ⑶The European wzhdjgj.commission raised Germany's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.2% from the -0.2% forecast in the spring, and is expected to rebound to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027. ⑷ The driving force for growth mainly wzhdjgj.comes from increased public expenditure, but this positive factor is partially offset by exports affected by trade tensions. ⑸The German Economic Experts wzhdjgj.committee lowered its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9% from 1.0% in May, which is more pessimistic than the government’s 1.3% forecast. ⑹ In terms of monetary policy, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for a period of time. ⑺The market's current expectation of the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped to 40%, mainly affected by a series of hawkish remarks by members of the Federal Open Market wzhdjgj.committee.
⑴ The French ten-year government bond yields remain stable at around 3.44%. Investors are waiting for the delayed release of the September employment report and other data in the United States to judge the Fed's policy path. ⑵ The European wzhdjgj.commission lowered France's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7% from the 1.2% forecast in the spring. It is expected to gradually rise to 0.9% in 2026 and reach 1.1% in 2027. ⑶Against the backdrop of economic uncertainty and necessary fiscal adjustments, domestic demand is expected to remain sluggish. ⑷This is in contrast to the remarks made by the Governor of the Bank of France last week, who pointed out that despite political uncertainty, economic resilience may lead to an upward revision of growth expectations for 2025-2026. ⑸ At the political level, the French National Assembly approved the suspension of pension reform, avoiding a vote of no confidence, but the final vote on the broader social security bill is still pending.
⑴The Italian ten-year government bond yields remain below 3.45%, close toThe highest level since mid-October. ⑵Investors are digesting the European wzhdjgj.commission's latest economic forecasts and awaiting data such as the delayed U.S. employment report for September for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. ⑶The European wzhdjgj.commission lowered Italy's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.4% from 0.7% in the spring, mainly due to weak wzhdjgj.com exports and the impact of U.S. tariffs. ⑷Italy’s economy is expected to return to a growth rate of 0.8% in 2026 and 2027, mainly benefiting from investment projects supported by the recovery fund. ⑸The overall growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 has been raised from 0.9% to 1.3%, reinforcing the European Central Bank's expectation of keeping interest rates unchanged. ⑹ In the United States, expectations for an interest rate cut in December have weakened due to differences in opinions among Federal Reserve officials. ⑺At the political level, Italy's 2025 budget is undergoing review by parliament, with the goal of reducing the deficit rate from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.0%. ⑻ This fiscal adjustment may help Italy exit the EU's excessive deficit procedure before 2026.
⑴ The French government announced that it has received 9.2 billion euros in new corporate investment wzhdjgj.commitments, bringing the total investment in the past year to more than 30.4 billion euros, covering 150 key projects. ⑵ Artificial intelligence infrastructure has become an investment hotspot, and the French Electricite and OpCore consortium are exclusively negotiating a 4 billion euro ultra-large data center project. ⑶Supercomputing wzhdjgj.company Eclarion has wzhdjgj.committed to invest 2.5 billion euros, AI cloud service provider Sesterce has invested 1.5 billion euros, and wzhdjgj.commercial real estate giant Altarea also plans to invest in building a data center. ⑷ Despite the continued political deadlock, France's economy still exceeded expectations by 0.5% in the third quarter, better than Germany and Italy, with exports and investment becoming the main driving forces. ⑸Business leaders have publicly criticized the 2026 tax increase plan passed by Congress, worried that relying solely on tax increases rather than spending cuts will damage the business environment. ⑹ Finance Minister Lescuer tried to appease the business wzhdjgj.community, emphasizing that fiscal consolidation will not rely solely on tax increases, and that all parties need to contribute to a balanced budget. ⑺The current investment boom is in sharp contrast to the financial difficulties, and the lack of policy visibility is becoming the biggest concern for the long-term layout of foreign investment.
⑴The Prime Minister of Iraq met with the former CEO of Lukoil, focusing on solutions to the impact of the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions on the wzhdjgj.company’s investment and operations. ⑵ Baghdad has made a clear wzhdjgj.commitment to maintaining stability in the global oil market in an attempt to alleviate supply concerns caused by geopolitical factors. ⑶ The West Qurna oil field in which Lukoil participates continues to maintain a daily production level of approximately 480,000 barrels, accounting for approximately 10% of Iraq’s total production. ⑷This high-level contact shows that oil-producing countries are actively responding to the potential impact of secondary sanctions on the energy supply chain. ⑸ U.S. fiscal measures have actually affected the operations of Russian oil wzhdjgj.companies in third countries, forcing relevant parties to seek alternatives to ensure production continuity. ⑹ Investors need to pay attention to Iraq's diplomatic strategy in balancing relations between the United States and Russia. Any policy changes may change the global heavy crude oil supply pattern. ⑺Current production of 480,000 barrels per dayThe wzhdjgj.commitment to maintain quotas provides short-term reassurance to the market, but long-term operational risks still depend on the evolution of sanctions policies.
⑴ Brazilian economists have lowered the IPCA inflation forecast for 2025 from 4.55% to 4.46%, and will remain unchanged at 4.20% in 2026, indicating that inflationary pressure continues to ease. ⑵The base interest rate Selic is expected to remain stable at 15.00% at the end of 2025 and 12.25% at the end of 2026, indicating that the high interest rate environment will continue. ⑶ Economic growth is expected to remain unchanged, with GDP growth expected to remain 2.16% in 2025 and 1.78% in 2026, reflecting a moderate economic recovery. ⑷Exchange rate expectations are slightly adjusted. The real is expected to tighten slightly from 5.41 to 5.40 against the US dollar at the end of 2025, and remain unchanged at 5.50 at the end of 2026. ⑸Continuous and stable expectations indicate that analysts believe that Brazil’s macroeconomic policy mix is bearing fruit and that progress has been made in balancing inflation control and growth. ⑹ The current policy interest rate of 15% ranks among the highest among major global economies, providing ample buffer space to deal with inflation. ⑺ Pay attention to the speed of inflation's fall and the timing of the central bank's policy shift. Any signal of early interest rate cuts may trigger changes in capital flows.
⑴The U.S. 2-year Treasury bond yield is at 3.606%, 157.4 basis points higher than similar German bonds, forming a strong attraction for short-term international funds. ⑵The 10-year U.S. bond yield reached 4.130%, which is 141.8 basis points higher than German bonds and 239.7 basis points more advantageous than Japanese bonds. The yield advantage is extremely significant. ⑶ British 2-year government bonds lead the major developed countries at 3.817%, which is 21.1 basis points higher than U.S. bonds, indicating that British assets are being repriced by the market. ⑷ Risk premiums in southern European countries remain high, with Italy's 10-year yield reaching 3.453%, a premium of 74.2 basis points over German bonds, reflecting continued debt concerns. ⑸The Japanese government bond yield curve is extremely flat, with the 2-year maturity at only 0.931% and the 10-year maturity at 1.733%, highlighting the suppressive effect of the central bank's ultra-loose policy. ⑹ The current global interest rate pattern shows a clear three-level differentiation: the British and American high-yield camp, the core and periphery of the Eurozone are in opposition, and Japan alone maintains a negative interest rate range. ⑺The trading logic focuses on the differentiation of central bank policies. Any signal of narrowing interest rate differentials between Europe and the United States may trigger a sharp shift in cross-market capital flows.
⑴ Takeshi Kataoka, a member of the Japanese Government Advisory wzhdjgj.committee, proposed a 23 trillion yen stimulus plan, far exceeding the 17 trillion yen previously reported by Nikkei. ⑵ The plan includes 20 trillion yen in fiscal expenditure and 3 trillion yen in tax cuts, aiming to deal with the dual impact of Trump’s tariff remarks and weak domestic consumption. ⑶ The source of funds is planned to be realized through the issuance of 10 trillion yen in new bonds and 13 trillion yen in tax and non-tax revenue, highlighting the determination of fiscal expansion.. ⑷ Kataoka emphasized that the central bank should postpone consideration of interest rate hikes until March-April next year, clearly opposing the market's general expectation of raising interest rates in December or January. ⑸ In response to the rapid depreciation of the yen, it stated that excessive weakness is not advisable, and the authorities should show a clear attitude of intervening in the foreign exchange market when necessary. ⑹ It is particularly recommended to issue special bonds to finance education expenditures and alleviate the severe labor shortage problem by improving productivity. ⑺ This move shows that Japanese policymakers are shifting to a more radical fiscal and monetary coordination strategy, and the global liquidity environment may face new variables.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1595, a decrease of 0.23%. Prices (EUR/USD) fell in the last trading session pre-market in New York as it attempts to find a rising low from which to base itself, helping it gain the bullish momentum it needs to recover as positive support from trading above the EMA50 continues and is dominated by a short-term bullish correction wave, in addition to reaching oversold levels via the relative strength indicator, which is exaggerated wzhdjgj.compared to the price movement to indicate the formation of a positive divergence.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3182, an increase of 0.06%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) price fell slightly on the last trading day as key resistance stabilized at 1.3185 in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and break above this resistance, while continuing to see dynamic support represented by trading above the EMA50, reinforcing the strength of the corrective bullish wave on a short-term basis, especially as it trades along the trendline.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4083.57, a decrease of 0.03%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices were trading volatile around last session's levels, influenced by a break of a minor bullish trendline on a short-term basis, followed by a negative signal on the relative strength indicator after unloading its oversold conditions, which pushed the price above its EMA50 support, exacerbating negative pressure in the period ahead.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 50.914, an increase of 0.67%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices were volatile during the day, relying on a smaller bullish trendline in the short term in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that might help it recover and rise again, after reaching oversold levels, accompanied by the emergence of a positive signal on the relative strength indicator.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, currently trading at 60.340, an increase of 0.43%. Prices (crude oil) closed sharply higher in recent intraday trading in New York, supported by a positive signal from the relative strength indicator, with prices fluctuating around its 50-day exponential moving average while trading within a minor bearish channel in the near term, which reduces the chances of a full price recovery in the near term.
⑴ Morgan Stanley interest rate strategists expect the European Central Bank to cut the policy interest rate from the current 2.00% to 1.50% in the first half of next year and maintain this level until the middle of the year. ⑵ The bank said: "Slowing growth, weaker-than-expected inflation and limited fiscal stimulus will push the European Central Bank to further ease, maintaining a moderately easing policy even as the shortening of pension fund maturities steepens the yield curve." ⑶ Against this background, the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to close at around 2.45% in 2026. ⑷ Data shows that money market pricing reflects that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by nearly 10 basis points in June 2026. ⑸The 10-year German government bond yield rose 0.7 basis points to 2.718%.
⑴ HSBC economists pointed out that Australian demand is growing faster than the supply side of the economy, and the next step for the Reserve Bank of Australia may be to raise interest rates. ⑵Given that the economy is close to or slightly exceeding the capacity limit, the unemployment rate is below full employment, core inflation is at the upper limit of the target range, and the housing market is in an upward cycle, the bank believes that there is no reason to further cut interest rates. ⑶ Economists added that the Reserve Bank of Australia may remain on hold in the short term, hoping that the gradual easing of the labor market will bring about more cooling of inflation. ⑷However, as time goes by, it may appear that the cash interest rate has been lowered too much. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to start raising interest rates in early 2027 after keeping interest rates unchanged in 2026.
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